The “streaming war” decade — where Netflix, Disney, Amazon, Apple, Paramount, and Warner all launched competing services simultaneously — is coming to an end. The phase that follows is different, colder, more rational.
The rules have changed.
What the first phase cost
Platforms collectively spent tens of billions of dollars annually on content production between 2018 and 2024. Netflix alone reached annual content budgets of $15–17 billion. Disney spent tens of billions on Marvel transitions, Star Wars, and Disney+ original content.
The market result: a content overproduction that subscribers don’t have time to watch, and significant losses for most non-Netflix players.
The reckoning: Disney+ went through years of massive losses before targeting profitability. Paramount+ merged with SkyShowtime in Europe. Warner Discovery canceled already-completed projects for tax reasons — an unprecedented decision that shocked the industry.
Netflix: the leader’s defensive position
Netflix achieved something few predicted: staying on top despite the competition. The reasons are several. A significant data advantage (Netflix knows what its 270+ million subscribers watch, with a granularity its competitors lack). A more geographically diverse catalog. And advertising revenue beginning to offset cheaper subscriptions.
Advertising is the new front. Netflix introduced an ad-supported tier in 2022 — a decision it had resisted for years. In 2026, this tier attracts a growing share of new subscribers in price-sensitive markets.
Apple TV+: quality over quantity
Apple TV+ made a diametrically opposite choice to Netflix: less content, but highly curated. Severance, Ted Lasso, The Morning Show, Slow Horses — productions that won awards and critical recognition.
The business model is different: Apple TV+ doesn’t need to monetize the content service independently. It’s a hook for Apple One bundle subscriptions, which keeps subscribers in the Apple ecosystem. The content is a customer acquisition cost for other services.
This logic is only possible for a company with Apple’s scale and margins.
What’s taking shape
The market is stabilizing around a few survivors with differentiated positions. Netflix as the neutral standard. Disney+ for families and premium IP (Marvel, Star Wars, Pixar). Amazon Prime Video as a bundled service. Apple TV+ as a premium complement.
What disappears: mid-tier services with neither catalog depth, differentiating IP, nor resources to maintain the pace.
The remaining question: how many subscriptions per household is the consumer willing to maintain? Annual research suggests a ceiling of 2–4, depending on market. Beyond that, fatigue and churn set in.