In 2016, Saudi Arabia welcomed approximately 18 million international tourists per year, mostly pilgrims en route to Mecca or Medina. Vision 2030, announced that year by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, set a radically different target: 100 million visitors annually by 2030, with a significant proportion being leisure and non-religious business travelers.
In 2026, ten years later, the scorecard is mixed — but less mixed than most would have predicted.
What has genuinely advanced
AlUla has become a destination. The Hegra archaeological site — Saudi Arabia’s answer to Petra, with Nabataean tombs carved into red rock — is now accessible and structured as a first-tier experiential destination. The Sharaan resort (designed by Jean Nouvel) is operational. Contemporary art and culture events (Desert X AlUla) have placed the site on the map for international travelers who would never have come to Saudi Arabia for other reasons.
The Red Sea destination is taking physical shape. The Red Sea Project, on Shura Island and surrounding archipelago, is a physical reality. Hyatt Miraval The Red Sea — welcoming its first guests this week — signals that international luxury hotels are actually opening there. Several more properties (Six Senses, Rosewood) are in pipeline within 18 months.
Visas are accessible. Until 2019, obtaining a Saudi tourist visa was a significant obstacle. The introduction of e-visas and visa-on-arrival for citizens of 49 countries removed the primary friction against travel intent. It’s Vision 2030’s most underestimated reform.
What remains genuinely uncertain
International non-pilgrimage demand is still limited. 2025 data shows real progress in non-religious international tourism, but still far from 2030 targets. The destination still lacks awareness among European and American leisure travelers who have no historical or cultural reason to choose Saudi Arabia over Dubai, the Maldives, or Oman.
The giga-project economic model raises questions. NEOM, Diriyah, LINE — projects of ambition and scale with few historical comparisons. These absorb hundreds of billions in public investment. Multiple timelines have slipped. Long-term profitability remains an open question.
The regulatory framework for international travelers. Saudi Arabia has significantly relaxed its social codes — women can drive, concerts and leisure events are permitted, luxury non-alcoholic lounges are proliferating. But for international travelers, notably women traveling alone or unmarried couples, some uncertainty persists about what’s accepted in practice in different contexts.
What hotel chains are actually seeing
International hotel groups look at Saudi Arabia with a mix of enthusiasm and pragmatism. The government is a partner that pays development fees, provides land, and guarantees minimum occupancy levels in early years — conditions not found anywhere else.
For Hyatt, opening Miraval at Shura Island isn’t a gamble: it’s brand deployment in a captive market with a government safety net. The primary risk isn’t early-year occupancy; it’s destination sustainability when public subsidies are progressively reduced.
For Accor, Saudi presence is also strategic: 60% of the country’s population is under 35, upper-income disposable incomes are significant, and domestic tourism (Saudis traveling within their own country) is a considerable market consistently underestimated in external analyses.
What the next four years look like
The most likely trajectory for Saudi tourism in 2026-2030: the destination builds out for luxury and cultural adventure tourism (AlUla, Red Sea, NEOM when it opens), driven primarily by Gulf travelers, East Asian visitors, and progressively European travelers.
The 100 million visitor target by 2030 is probably out of reach on the stated timeline. But a 40-50 million visitor destination with a growing share of international luxury tourism would still represent a remarkable transformation in fifteen years.
The Hyatt Miraval Red Sea welcoming its first guests this week is a tangible milestone. Not a succeeded destination — but one progressing with a consistency that surprises its own observers.